Nigeria Struggles to Meet OPEC Quota as Crude Output Falls for Second Month

Nigeria’s crude oil production declined for the second consecutive month in January 2025.

According to Reuters, crude oil production declined by 60,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January.

The latest drop brings the country’s total crude production to 1.42 million bpd from 1.484 million bpd in December 2024.

The decline in Nigeria’s oil production contributed to a broader reduction in OPEC’s overall crude supply, which fell by 50,000 bpd last month, counteracting an output recovery in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where field maintenance had previously limited production.

Despite ongoing efforts to ramp up production, Nigeria remains below its OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd and continues to push toward achieving its two million bpd target.

The drop in production comes as global demand uncertainties and rising non-OPEC output have prompted the wider OPEC group to maintain its current production cuts until the end of March.

“At an average of $25 and $40 production costs per barrel, the nation’s upstream oil production costs are among the highest in the world. This range is significantly higher than production costs in top oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia, where efficient operations allow for costs as low as $10 per barrel,” the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) said in a publication.

The report also noted that domestic crude usage in Nigeria is increasing as the Dangote refinery ramps up production. This, experts projected will continue to weigh on export volume.

Iran also recorded a 60,000 bpd decline last month after hitting its highest production levels since 2018 despite U.S. sanctions. Analysts anticipate that tighter sanctions from the U.S. could further curb Iranian crude output.

While Nigeria and Iran posted the largest output declines, OPEC’s biggest production increase came from the UAE, which recorded a 90,000 bpd rise as it recovered from maintenance-related constraints.

A source quoted in the Reuters report noted that some partial field maintenance continued in January, extending from December 2024.

The survey further indicated that Libya’s production increased by 40,000 bpd, continuing its output recovery following the resolution of a dispute over control of the central bank that had previously led to production cuts.

Despite ongoing production constraints across several member states, OPEC has maintained its plan to start raising output in April, following an agreement to extend cuts until the end of March.