Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 22.97 percent in May 2025 from 23.71 percent recorded in April 2025, according to new data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday.
Despite the moderation in the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI), food prices continue to exert significant pressure on household consumption.
The NBS attributed the slowdown in the headline rate to a deceleration in the rate of increase in average price levels across key non-food categories.
On a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate stood at 1.53 percent in May, down from 1.86 percent recorded in April, reflecting a 0.33 percentage point decline.
However, food inflation remains elevated, with the month-on-month food inflation rate rising to 2.19 percent in May from 2.06 percent in April.
According to the NBS, the uptick was driven by price increases in essential commodities such as yam, cassava tubers, maize, flour and sweet potatoes.
On a year-on-year basis, food inflation slowed significantly to 21.14 percent in May 2025, down from 40.66 percent recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.
The NBS attributed this sharp decline to a statistical base effect stemming from the revised base year in its inflation computation, now benchmarked to November 2009 = 100.
“The significant decline in the annual food inflation figure is technically due to the change in the base year,” the bureau noted in its report.
Despite the lower headline rate, analysts caution that the persistent increase in food prices on a monthly basis indicates continued stress in the domestic food supply chain, aggravated by logistics constraints, insecurity in agrarian communities, and foreign exchange volatility.
The urban inflation rate was 23.14 percent in May, representing a 13.20 percentage point drop from 36.34 percent recorded in May 2024.
Month-on-month, urban inflation rose slightly to 1.40 percent, compared to 1.18 percent in April. Conversely, rural inflation stood at 22.70 percent with the monthly figure declining to 1.83 percent from 3.56 percent in April.
The average annual headline inflation for the 12 months ending May 2025 was 27.55 percent, down by 1.51 percentage points from 29.06 percent recorded in the same period in 2024.
For food inflation, the annual average stood at 29.80 percent, 4.26 percentage points lower than the 34.06 percent recorded in May 2024.
With global commodity prices softening and domestic production still recovering, the inflation outlook for the coming months remains mixed.
Analysts anticipate that ongoing Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) monetary tightening and fiscal measures may help contain further inflationary pressure, but price volatility in food and transport categories could remain persistent due to structural inefficiencies.
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