West Africa, home to the world’s largest cocoa producers, is bracing for another disappointing harvest as structural challenges threaten to keep global supplies tight and prices elevated.
In Ghana, production for the 2025–26 main crop season is projected at 620,000 tons, well below the country’s historical peaks.
The figure, according to traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, underscores the country’s continued struggle with aging trees, crop diseases, and adverse weather conditions.
Ivory Coast, the world’s top producer, is expected to maintain output at around 1.4 million tons between October and March. While the forecast is in line with last season’s performance, it reflects little sign of recovery from the sector’s persistent challenges despite improved rainfall in recent months.
The weaker outlook means global cocoa supply is likely to remain tight, following an estimated 40,000-ton shortfall this year. The International Cocoa Organization reports that the global stocks-to-use ratio, a key gauge of supply relative to demand, is hovering near its lowest level since at least 1981.
In the United States, cocoa inventories in exchange-monitored warehouses have also dropped below their 10-year average.
Analysts warn that the supply strain may keep prices elevated despite a recent pullback from record highs. Cocoa futures have declined about 40% from the nearly $13,000 per ton peak reached in December but remain well above the five-year average.
JPMorgan projects prices staying above $6,000 per ton, while Citi forecasts $7,000 over the next year, more than double the long-term norm.
“This market is going to be trading higher for longer,” said Tracey Allen, strategist at JPMorgan. “Regardless of what the supply and deficit situation is next year, we are not going back to five-year average levels anytime soon.”
Elsewhere in the region, Nigeria’s cocoa production is projected to decline 11% to 305,000 tons for the 2025–26 season, down from 344,000 tons in the current cycle.
Mufutau Abolarinwa, President of the Cocoa Association of Nigeria, cited delayed rainfall and wind damage to young pods as major setbacks.
Cameroon stands out as a rare bright spot, with production expected to rise 12% to 300,000 tons, according to the Cocoa and Coffee Interprofessional Council. The country’s growth contrasts with the broader regional downturn, offering some support to global supply.
Despite these developments, analysts caution that even if weather improves, output will be coming off a weak base after two underwhelming harvests.
This trend raises questions about West Africa’s long-term dominance in the global cocoa market as Ecuador and other Latin American producers expand their production capacity.