Brent crude traded near $70 a barrel on Monday as investors assessed the impact of a fresh supply increase from OPEC+ and the possibility of U.S. action against Russian oil flows.
The market fluctuated after OPEC+ confirmed it would raise production by 547,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September, a move that completes the reversal of output cuts made by a subgroup of the alliance, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, in 2023.
The decision, announced over the weekend, aligns with expectations but has renewed speculation that supply growth could outpace demand in the coming months.
Analysts warn the increase may contribute to higher commercial stockpiles and a compression of market timespreads, raising the risk of a sell-off toward the end of the year.
Crude prices are coming off a three-month winning streak, although last Friday saw a sharp pullback following weak U.S. employment data, which heightened concerns over a potential slowdown in the world’s largest economy.
Traders are also monitoring signals from Washington, where President Donald Trump has threatened to impose secondary sanctions on nations, including India, if they continue to purchase Russian oil.
“While OPEC+ policy remains flexible and the geopolitical outlook uncertain, we assume that OPEC+ keeps required production unchanged after September,” Goldman Sachs analysts led by Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby noted.
The bank maintained its forecast for Brent crude to average $64 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, before easing to $56 in 2026.
Uncertainty around Russian oil exports continues to weigh on sentiment. Although India remains one of Moscow’s key buyers, no directive has yet been issued for refiners to halt purchases, according to sources familiar with the matter.
President Trump, however, reiterated his concerns on Sunday, warning that secondary sanctions could take effect as early as August 8. He also confirmed that special envoy Steve Witkoff may travel to Russia later this week for discussions.
The latest OPEC+ increase, seen as part of a wider push by the cartel to reclaim market share, underscores the group’s balancing act between stabilizing prices and defending its position in the global energy market.
Industry observers believe the September boost could mark the final adjustment in OPEC+’s recent series of output hikes, with attention now shifting to whether the group will maintain current levels or adjust further in response to geopolitical and market developments.